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Alternative Thinking
Can Machines Time Markets? The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction
May 6, 2024
Common wisdom has suggested that small, simple models are best suited for market timing applications, given finance’s “small data” constraint and naturally low predictability. However, we show that complex models better identify true nonlinear relationships and therefore produce better market timing strategy performance. We validate this "virtue of complexity" result in three practical market timing applications.
Working Paper
Levering Up to Do Good: Direct Long-Short Investing and Charitable Giving
April 23, 2024
We use historical strategy simulations to evaluate the advantages of donating appreciated stock in the context of tax-aware long-short factor strategies. We find long-short strategies exhibit several advantages over long-only investments.